@InCollection{OliveiraBCAVRNA:2019:AsPoIm,
author = "Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de and Borma, Laura de Simone and
Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Von Randow,
Celso and Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s and Nobre, Carlos Afonso
and Alexandre, Felipe Ferreira",
title = "Assessing the possible impacts of a 4 °C or higher warming in
Amazonia",
booktitle = "Climate change risks in Brazil",
publisher = "Springer",
year = "2019",
editor = "Nobre, C. A. and Marengo, J. A. and Soares, W. R.",
pages = "201--218",
keywords = "Amazonian forest, warming.",
abstract = "The Amazonian forests ability to provide environmental services is
threatened by anthropogenic forcing at various scales, such as
deforestation, fire, global and regional climate change, and
extreme events. In addition to the impacts resulting from each one
of these drivers, the synergistic effects potentially increase the
risks. In the light of the above, this chapter aims to evaluate
the future prospects for the Amazon in a scenario of 4 °C or
higher warming resulting from anthropogenic climate change and the
related hydrological cycle changes. Future climate scenarios
project progressively higher warming that may exceed 4 °C in
Amazonia in the second half of the century, particularly during
the dry season in the region. Associated with these scenarios, it
is projected a reduction of precipitation year-round, being a
substantial reduction predominantly in the dry and transition
seasons and smaller reductions of the order of 5% for the SH
summer. Evaluating the consequences of such substantial climatic
change, several negative effects in Amazonia can be anticipated,
including short-term hydrological changes similar to the events
associated to the extreme 2005 and 2010 droughts, and longer
time-scale modifications of broad scale characteristics such as
different biome distribution. Based on hydrological models, it is
generally expected a reduction in river discharges associated to
precipitation decreases and temperature increases brought about by
projected climate change, but with the magnitude of the changes
differing between models. The future climate change scenarios
imply important changes in biomes distribution over Amazonia, with
potential expansion of savannah and caatinga over large areas
currently occupied by tropical forests. It is necessary a
reduction to nearly zero in tropical deforestation and reducing
land-cover emissions and mitigating climate change to avoid a
dangerous interference with the ability of natural ecosystems to
adapt to these possible changes.",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and
{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
doi = "10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_8",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_8",
isbn = "978-331992881-4 and 978-331992880-7",
language = "en",
targetfile = "sampaio_assessing.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "21 maio 2024"
}